____________________________________________ 7 IICC Perspectives • How did the notion that “Israel is a static player” in the regional political-military game take root in hierarchical systems? Why is there no recognition that the policies, actions and failures of the “blue side” often decisively influence the conduct of the adversary? Conclusions The failure of assessments prior to October 7 does not mean reinventing the wheel. Some propose stripping Military Intelligence of its monopoly as the “national assessor” and establishing a new integrating intelligence body (for example, modeled on the American DNI following 9/11). However, we believe such a coordinating mechanism would be unnecessary, since it would only add bureaucratic burdens and complexity. The mechanism already exists today as the National Security Council. Had it fulfilled its legal responsibility according to the 2008 NSC Law (specifically Section 2(a)(6), regarding preparation of situation assessments on political-security matters, “including opinions and analyses in the various intelligence domains”), the intelligence failure of Military Intelligence (including Southern Command Intelligence and the Gaza Division), and of the Shin Bet, might have been avoided. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that the guidelines and procedures for effective policy-security staff work as set out by the Winograd Commission and subsequently the Lipkin-Shahak Commission5 for the NSC be studied and implemented. Their full and continuous implementation, including strengthening the Center and ensuring the transfer of classified intelligence materials for its use (without hiding behind information security excuses which serve to preserve organizational power), could serve as a cornerstone for reinforcing much-needed intelligence pluralism. The issue is especially critical in a situation in which a dominant leader entrenched in its own ability to understand reality and exclusively shape strategy is increasingly closed off to hearing and internalizing dissenting assessments.
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