____________________________________________ 4 IICC Perspectives On August 27, 2023, the Center reported remarks by Saleh al-'Arouri, at the time deputy head of the Hamas’ political bureau and head of its West Bank leadership, who had told Lebanon’s al-Mayadeen TV about “ongoing talks regarding a full-scale war with all members of the resistance axis.”1 In presenting its annual intelligence assessment in September 2023, the Center determined that Israel was entering the year in a more challenging position in the Palestinian arena: Hamas’ policy of “quiet in exchange for economic benefits in Gaza” was expected to erode, particularly in the event of West Bank escalation, the targeting of senior operatives, changes to the status quo in Jerusalem and lack of progress on the prisoner issue. On September 19, 2023, the Center warned of the intensification of “disturbances” along the Gaza border and said that Hamas was signaling dissatisfaction with Israel’s declaration of changing the “equation” following Operation Guardian of the Walls, and with Israel’s threat to eliminate Hamas leaders in Gaza over the group’s involvement in terrorism from the West Bank. The Center’s assessments in historical perspective Thus, not all intelligence agencies completely failed in their evaluation of the situation in the Palestinian arena and Hamas’ conduct. Moreover, the Center has a proven history of sober analyses of situations at critical historical junctures. That translated into presenting balanced and reliable intelligence assessments in the strategic-political sphere, including on the Palestinian issue, to political leaderships from across the spectrum, even if there was not always agreement with its conclusions. For example, in 2006, the Center highlighted the critical issue of Hezbollah’s rearmament following the Second Lebanon War and the need to foil it. That complemented a broader strategic assessment, unique at the time, that the war had fundamentally changed the situation with Hezbollah on the northern border, despite widespread demoralization in Israel and justified criticism of the IDF’s performance. In 2008, the Center rejected the political assessment that a comprehensive agreement with the Palestinians could be achieved and instead recommended pursuing partial steps. 1 Iran, Hezbollah, the Palestinian terrorist organizations operating in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria, and the Houthis in Yemen, whose objective is to destroy and eliminate the State of Israel. Logo of the Center for Political Research at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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