____________________________________________ 3 IICC Perspectives that Hamas had not been deterred, not by this operation or by any other, contrary to the assessments of other intelligence bodies and senior military and political officials who boasted of successful deterrence. The Center’s warnings ahead of October 7th The Center’s warnings in 2022–2023 were conveyed to all relevant intelligence and political bodies through a series of publications given relatively low security classification to ensure maximum accessibility. The warnings were based primarily on OSINT (open-source information), a deep understanding of the situation and extensive professional experience. During 2023, the Center noted that the potential for escalation from Hamas was increasing from the Gaza Strip. It was caused by what Hamas felt was the growing connection between escalation in the West Bank and its repercussions in Gaza; Israel’s responses, policies and actions, which Hamas attributed to the new Israeli government in Jerusalem, the Temple Mount and elsewhere. Starting in January 2023, the Center papers raised the possibility that Hamas saw 2023 as a year of confrontation with Israel, partly due to what it perceived as provocative Israeli initiatives, such as changes in the status quo in Jerusalem and on the Temple Mount. In December 2022 al-Sinwar called his vision for a "major move" against Israel "a roaring flood." In an update document from February 2023, the Center called the progressive destabilization of the PA a “gray rhinoceros,” meaning it was a high-risk situation with an expected negative outcome, but it would be difficult to predict when all the factors enabling it would align and the charge would begin. In its core 2023 deterrence assessment (allegedly achieved via Operations Guardian of the Walls and Breaking Dawn), the Center concluded in March 2023 that Hamas preserved calm in Gaza exclusively out of self-interest, not deterrence. It further concluded that under certain circumstances, e.g., escalation in the West Bank, Hamas might also escalate the situation from Gaza. (source: Google Gemini)
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