____________________________________________ 2 IICC Perspectives The Center’s perspective on the Palestinian issue In the period leading up to terrorist attack and massacre which Hamas called Operation al-Aqsa Flood, the Center believed that internal and external triggers, both longstanding and new, were affecting the Hamas leadership in Gaza more than in the past, and they could lead it to respond from within the Gaza Strip itself, changing its previous strategy of maintaining an apparent but specious relative quiet in Gaza which allowed for rearmament and force-building. For Hamas, triggers for shattering the calm in Gaza included Israeli military responses in Gaza, including Israel’s targeting senior terrorist operatives in the West Bank in response to Hamas’ responsibility for escalation in the territories; the policy of the new Israeli government as perceived by Hamas, particularly in Jerusalem and especially on the Temple Mount; Israel’s continued failure to release Palestinian prisoners; and criticism from the West Bank that Hamas wanted quiet and to preserve its assets in the Gaza Strip. Even before 2023, but throughout the year, in its regular and special assessments the Center consistently warned of the accelerating destabilization of the existing order in the Palestinian arena, the weakening of the PA, the strengthening of Hamas and its development of additional operational arenas. It emphasized the need to elevate the place of the Palestinian issue on the national agenda because of its increasing volatility. The Center fundamentally rejected the notion that Hamas under Yahya al-Sinwar was “deterred.” It analyzed the logic of his policies, especially since his takeover of Hamas in 2017, with a practical, realistic understanding of his ideological rigidity and as a nonpragmatic leader, of his strategic commitment to the vision of Israel’s destruction and how to put it into practice. The Center’s assessment that IDF operations in recent years had failed to effectively deter Hamas was consistent and well-substantiated. In May 2021, following Operation Guardian of the Walls, it determined that Hamas had concluded the round of fighting with a genuine sense of having made important achievements. The bottom line was The Center for Political Research (CPR) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, warned, even before 2023, that Hamas is not deterred, and that its leader is guided by ideological rigidity and a deep commitment to the vision of eliminating Israel/ (source: Google Gemini)
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MjgzNzA=