____________________________________________ 3 IICC Perspectives the sun’s heat melted the wax that held Icarus' wings, causing him to fall to his death, the surprise attack of October 7 shattered the illusion of certainty, revealing its devastating consequences for Aman and the IDF. What was the source of the illusion that intelligence superiority could make the enemy fully exposed and overcome uncertainty? Apparently, it was the combination of two deeply entrenched trends which existed in Aman (and in the entire intelligence community) and a greater connection between them in recent years. The rehabilitation of Aman therefore also includes abandoning the concept of intelligence superiority in its extreme form, and especially the illusion of certainty. The basic assumption should be that the enemy's real situation will never be fully exposed, clear or entirely understood. In other words, there will always be a gap between our understanding of reality and what actually exists. "Deep familiarity" is not enough One trend came from an intelligence approach which favors a thorough and deep familiarity with the enemy's culture, language and history. In Intelligence as a State Institution – The Lost Book (2015), Yehoshafat Harkabi explains that such deep familiarity allows one to "penetrate the enemy's mind," meaning "into their thoughts, attitude, mindset and reactions," making it possible to know what the enemy is thinking better than the enemy does himself. He also explains its logic and purpose. "By studying the present, we can attempt to anticipate the future," Harkabi explained in a later article, expressing an approach that equates the role of intelligence with predicting the future. In fact, deep familiarity with the enemy is of immense importance and is primary to the intelligence effort; its importance cannot be overstated. To a large extent, it is the foundation of all intelligence work. However, such an approach is also seriously problematic because it assumes that reality has The basic assumption should be that the enemy's real situation will never be fully exposed, clear or entirely understood. (ChatGPT) In his book "Intelligence as a national Institute", Yehoshafat Harkabi explains that such deep familiarity allows one to "penetrate the enemy's mind".
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