____________________________________________ 2 IICC Perspectives The persistence of this flawed perception framework over the years, up until the very onset of the attack, indicates, among other things, the high degree of certainty that decision-makers and intelligence officials attributed to it. The main argument of the article is that one of the contributing factors to this phenomenon is the "illusion of certainty" – a mindset that has taken hold in recent years, fostering the belief that reality is fully exposed, clear, and, most importantly, understood. The thesis of this article is that the illusion of certainty is not unique to the Gaza Strip arena but is rather a broader result of a problematic intelligence culture which fails to prioritize doubt and debate. This is further reinforced by with the belief that the accessibility provided by the information revolution established an "intelligence superiority" that rendered reality fully exposed and completely understood. From intelligence superiority to the illusion of certainty The surprise attack of October 7 occurred at a time when the IDF's Intelligence Corps (Aman) databases were filled with unprecedentedly high-quality and extensive information. Intelligence personnel frequently discussed the implications of the information revolution and the new opportunities it provided for intelligence work. The process of producing intelligence was described as a "factory" that created a massive flow of quality information directly supporting decision-making. In his recently published book, Military Intelligence in a Complex and Changing Reality (2024), Meir Finkel suggested that officers in Aman and in other parts of the IDF became convinced that high-quality information would solve the eternal military problem of making decisions in conditions of severe uncertainty. Like Icarus from Greek mythology, who flew too close to the sun, Aman and the IDF seem to have attempted in recent years to get closer to certainty. The most pronounced attempt to overcome uncertainty was the ambitious concept of "intelligence superiority," which became a common term in both Aman and the IDF. In an article published by Aman officers in 2020 in the journal Between the Poles, intelligence superiority was described as a state in which "the enemy is exposed to us at any given moment and over time," their moves “are read in real time," and their "dilemmas and considerations are clear." Just as The surprise attack on Israel, 2023 (Wikipedia) th October 7 The concept of "intelligence superiority" was of common use both in Aman and in the operational echelons of the IDF (IDF Spokesperson)
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