____________________________________________ 9 IICC Perspectives The grand-strategy context: In the two years leading up to the Yom Kippur War, the preoccupation with terrorist attacks, mainly abroad, was intense, especially after the Munich massacre in September 1972, and until the al-Saiqa attack on migrant train in Austria, September 1973. Some studies of the war claimed that the decision-makers in Israel dealt with that threat, which was disturbing but limited and not existential, instead of dealing with the significant threat, being constructed and about to be realized in Egypt and Syria. As for the 2023 disaster, alongside the claim about weakening the Palestinian Authority and strengthening Hamas, what also has to be examined is whether the preoccupation of the IDF and the intelligence organizations with the Iranian nuclear issue (including the idea of pushing the United States to withdraw from its agreement with Iran in May 2018), was not also part of a deliberate internal diversion of attention, to avoid dealing with the Palestinian issue (and not just a result of the need to deal with the Iranian threat itself). The extensive preoccupation with the Abraham Accords, which were undoubtedly initiated as an alternative strategy to find a solution to the Palestinian issue, certainly contributed to it. Ethical and methodological intelligence failures (within the limitations depicted so far) The failure of Special Intelligence Operation Sources (SIOP): Regarding the two aforementioned strategic surprises, in the final analysis, the prestigious, expensive SIOP did not produce what was expected of it, namely to provide as early and accurate warning. One reason was the enemy's awareness of having its communications intercepted, and taking exceptional precautions when discussing specific issues. Fifty years ago, it was identified, clearly. in 2023, it was noticed and therefore suspected by Hamas, which probably avoided using those communications. Signing the Abraham's Agreements (Source: official white house)
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