____________________________________________ 13 IICC Perspectives Errors of thought in predicting the future and perceptual distortions, built into us as humans: No one will never be able to accurately predict the future, and we will forever suffer from knee-jerk distortions of perception without being aware of them. Humans also tend to reject and ignore signs of difficult situations. Those are all "sins couching at the door." In the field of thought, there was a lack of effective activity in the Devil's Advocate monitoring department, in the years leading up to the attack in 2023. In this regard, we will not add to the many publications in the Israeli media regarding the continuous decrease in the influence of this important monitoring, over the past years. Beyond the inherent failures, in our opinion, the fact that intelligence officers at the level of regional divisions, are now exposed to sensitive intelligence materials, some of which was not even distributed to the regional command levels in the past, allowed for and caused, unfortunately, a decrease in the value of VISINT and OSINT reports. While in 1973, the ability to deal with "mysteries" was reserved for the analytical division at IDF's General Staff level, it appears to be now at two lower levels, too. Thus, due to increasing pluralistic approach and the decentralization of information to lower levels after 1973, and especially after the Second Lebanon War in 2006. The capabilities acquired improve the handling of "secrets" by the intelligence officers at the regional commands and divisions levels, but apparently, they were not used to deal better with "mysteries" challenges. The self-deception of the intelligence system: The failures did not result from a lack of information or the degree to which the enemy deceived us, but from misinterpretation, a kind of self-deception. In 2023 as in 1973, the IDF was in a state of continuous defense, with the illusion of being superdefended: in 1973 it was the Suez Canal; in 2023 it was the border security barrier, Devil's Advocate monitoring Department (Source: Malam Archive & Facebook)
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